A Fragile Ceasefire, an Uncertain Path
President Donald Trump has decided, at least for now, to pursue diplomatic negotiations with Iran rather than resume large-scale military strikes — but he has not taken that option off the table. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Trump held several recent conversations with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Air Force General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about whether to abandon talks with Tehran and return to full-scale attacks. Some officials described that course of action as “finishing the job.”
Despite those internal deliberations, Trump has told aides he believes a renewed military campaign could derail diplomacy and undermine any chance of permanently dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. The decision reflects a calculated, if uneasy, bet on negotiation over confrontation.
The Memorandum of Understanding: What Was Agreed
The backdrop to these discussions is a memorandum of understanding signed two weeks ago between Washington and Tehran, ending hostilities that began February 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s political leadership and military infrastructure. The MOU established a 60-day framework during which both sides are expected to work toward a permanent agreement.
Under its terms, Iran committed to making its best efforts to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the United States agreed to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. The arrangement is narrow, transactional, and explicitly temporary — a ceasefire in structure, if not always in practice.
Trump has also signalled he is comfortable allowing nuclear negotiations to extend beyond the August 18 deadline, giving diplomats additional time to reach an agreement — a notable concession of flexibility from an administration that initially pushed hard deadlines.
A Weekend of Skirmishing and a Deconfliction Channel
The MOU’s fragility became apparent last weekend when an Iranian drone damaged a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a round of back-and-forth strikes. Trump responded with what he described as a “one-off” reprisal — a targeted action rather than a broader escalation. He has told aides he is satisfied with this calibrated approach to Iranian violations, at least for now.
Vice President JD Vance reinforced that posture Tuesday on Fox News, saying Trump wants to see where negotiations lead. “And if it doesn’t lead to a successful resolution on the diplomatic side, we still have a lot of optionality,” Vance said. He also confirmed last week, in an interview with the British outlet UnHerd, that Washington and Tehran have agreed to establish a deconfliction communication channel in Doha, Qatar, linking representatives from U.S. Central Command and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Some officials pointed to that crisis line as evidence of improving relations. Others cautioned that it remains in its earliest stages.
Doha Talks: Proximity Without Direct Contact
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and White House adviser Jared Kushner arrived in Doha on Tuesday for a new round of negotiations. Qatari officials confirmed the two sides communicated through mediators rather than directly — a format that reflects the depth of mutual distrust even as both parties remain nominally committed to reaching a deal. Technical experts from both countries were similarly scheduled for indirect talks this week.
Two major sticking points have emerged. Iran is insisting on charging billions of dollars in transit fees for commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz — a demand Washington flatly rejects, arguing ships should transit freely as they did before the conflict. Tehran has also pushed back on any severe restrictions on its nuclear program, despite Trump’s public assertions that Iran has already committed to such limits.
The Military Option Remains Real
Hegseth and Caine have provided the White House with options for resuming large-scale airstrikes on Iranian military sites, officials told the Journal. The fact that those plans are being actively briefed — rather than simply existing in a drawer — underscores that the military track is a live consideration, not a theoretical fallback.
Suzanne Maloney, vice president for foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution and a longtime Iran analyst, told the Journal that Trump retains other instruments of pressure short of war. Washington could slow-roll Iran’s access to billions of dollars in frozen funds that Tehran urgently wants, or continue raising the cost of Iran’s efforts to control the strait.
“This middle ground strategy has real limitations,” Maloney said, noting that Trump appears unwilling to restart a full-scale war and that Iran retains genuine capacity to disrupt maritime traffic. “But the combination of predictable U.S. reprisals and conditioning economic incentives on compliance could persuade Tehran not to overplay its hand.”
The Stakes of Stalemate
The broader diplomatic stalemate carries a particular political risk for the Trump administration. Some officials acknowledged privately that resuming large-scale conflict would amount to a tacit admission that the much-publicized MOU had failed — an uncomfortable concession after weeks of presenting the ceasefire as a diplomatic achievement.
What emerges from the Journal‘s reporting is a White House navigating a narrow corridor: unwilling to accept Iranian defiance, reluctant to restart a war, and searching for leverage that can move Tehran without triggering a new round of escalation. Whether that corridor stays open depends, in large part, on what happens in Doha.
