Trump Casts Doubt on Continental Trade Deal at G7 Summit

U.S. President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that America would be better off without the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, sending a confusing signal about the future of the trilateral trade pact that underpins much of the Canadian economy.

“We do better without that agreement,” Trump told reporters in France, where he was attending the G7 summit.

Contradictory Signals from Washington

Trump’s remarks were muddled throughout. He said he would rather “leave it unsigned” or “have it terminated,” but when pressed for clarification, he added: “I would rather not have the agreement but I may sign it.”

When pushed further on whether he intended to withdraw the U.S. from the deal or allow it to roll into annual reviews, Trump said he viewed it as “possibly expiring immediately” — while simultaneously saying he remained open to keeping it.

Trump also said he liked the agreement because it replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement — the same deal he once called the “best trade agreement ever” during his first administration.

What Happens After July 1

Known in Canada as CUSMA, the continental trade agreement is subject to a mandatory review, with July 1 serving as a key milestone. The Trump administration has signalled it will miss that date.

Missing the deadline triggers an annual rolling review that can last up to a decade, after which the agreement expires if not renewed. Both Canada and Mexico have called for a full 16-year extension.

Christopher Sands, director of Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Canadian Studies, offered perspective on what July 1 actually means. “It’s like the moment in a poker game where the players lay their cards on the table,” he said.

Sands explained that each country must signal whether it wants to renew for 16 years, withdraw entirely, or do neither — continuing under annual review. “Withdrawal is the only option that is unilateral, and renewal requires unanimous agreement,” he said.

The Stakes for Canada

The agreement currently shields Canadian and Mexican exporters from many of Trump’s tariffs — goods that comply with USMCA rules are exempt from the current global U.S. duty of 10 per cent.

Canada is nonetheless facing separate U.S. tariffs targeting steel, aluminum, automobiles, and cabinetry, underscoring how much economic pressure Ottawa is already absorbing.

Most trade experts believe the deep integration of North American industries makes a swift U.S. withdrawal from USMCA unlikely, regardless of Trump’s rhetoric.

Talks Underway — But Not with Canada

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said there are “pillars” of the agreement that function well and has floated the idea of two separate bilateral deals — one with Canada, one with Mexico — rather than a single trilateral pact.

Formal trade negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico have begun, but no official talks between Washington and Ottawa have yet launched.

Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with Greer on the sidelines of the G7 on Tuesday, saying afterward that discussions with his American counterpart are not a “one-way conversation.”

Canada and India move toward closer ties amid unresolved allegations of transnational repression

Prime Minister Mark Carney has invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Canada for an official visit in 2026, following a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France on Tuesday. The two leaders also agreed to launch negotiations on a General Security of Information Agreement that would facilitate the exchange of classified defence and security intelligence.

The Prime Minister’s Office readout of the meeting made no mention of foreign interference or transnational repression — allegations that have shadowed Canada-India relations since 2023.

A Relationship in Thaw

The G7 meeting is the latest step in a broader effort by Carney to repair ties with India after a dramatic diplomatic rupture. Ottawa suspended free trade negotiations with New Delhi in 2023 after the federal government accused India of involvement in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh activist killed in Surrey, B.C.

Carney travelled to India in late February and early March, where he and Modi agreed to resume free trade talks and signed a new energy partnership. Tuesday’s readout said both governments are looking forward to upcoming dialogues in the areas of defence, finance, and migration.

India’s rapprochement is part of a wider Canadian pivot toward new trade and security partners in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war. Canada has also sought closer ties with China — Carney visited Beijing in January and signed several agreements, including a security cooperation pact between the RCMP and China’s Ministry of Public Security that has drawn scrutiny for its lack of transparency.

The Nijjar Assassination and Its Aftermath

The RCMP believes members of the India-based Lawrence Bishnoi gang were hired by the Indian government to kill Nijjar in 2023, in what investigators describe as an act of transnational repression tied to his activism in the Khalistan movement, which advocates for an independent Punjabi state.

Modi’s government was later implicated in a second alleged assassination plot targeting a Canadian Khalistan activist living in New York. An internal RCMP report obtained by Global News described the Bishnoi group as engaging in murder-for-hire in Canada and “acting on behalf of the Indian government.”

The Bishnoi gang has also claimed responsibility for a wave of extortion-related violence across multiple provinces, threatening in a letter to a B.C. police station last year that it had 1,000 members prepared to carry out shootings in Canada. Ottawa designated the gang a foreign terrorist entity in 2024.

India denies any involvement in the Nijjar killing. Its top envoy in Ottawa, Dinesh Patnaik, told the Globe and Mail last month that Canada’s national security agencies had been “compromised.”

Carney’s Ambiguous Position

Ahead of Carney’s India trip, a senior government official told reporters that Canada was confident Indian foreign interference was “not happening anymore” — a claim that drew immediate pushback from Sikh community groups, who said they continue to receive police warnings that their lives are in danger.

Sikh organizations have protested outside Parliament, saying they feel “betrayed” by Carney’s shifting posture toward New Delhi.

When asked in Australia whether he endorsed his official’s remarks, Carney distanced himself: “I would not use those words.” But he also declined, on multiple occasions, to state directly whether India is currently interfering in Canadian democracy or targeting Sikh activists on Canadian soil.

“I will tell you that there is progress on these issues,” Carney said. “We will not tolerate foreign interference, transnational repression, by anyone — and I stress, by anyone. There’s a wide range of countries who make these efforts from time to time.”

— With files from Global News’ Stewart Bell and The Canadian Press

Alberta premier says Trump’s hardball tactics are a negotiating style, not a final position

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is urging Canadian negotiators to stop overreacting to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, arguing that panic undermines Canada’s ability to reach a deal that works for both countries.

Speaking Monday as a keynote speaker at the New North America Summit — a forum bringing together leaders to discuss cross-border relations and challenges — Smith offered her read of Trump’s negotiating style based on two personal meetings with the president in 2025.

A Businessman’s Playbook

“He always had a plan A, a plan B and plan C, all of which benefited him,” Smith told the summit. “He has his moon shot, but he also has a ‘this is pretty good’ and then he has an ‘I’ll settle for this.'”

Smith argued that Canada has consistently misread Trump’s opening gambits as final positions. “I don’t think we’ve understood that he always puts his moon shot out there and then we panic and freak out with ads and overwrought commentary — but that is just a negotiating style that he has,” she said.

She expressed cautious optimism that a mutually beneficial outcome remains possible. “I think we’re now beginning to settle down and realize there is a way for us to get to a win-win,” she said, “but the Americans are never going to agree to a deal where they feel they’ve lost ground.”

CUSMA’s Future Uncertain

The stakes are considerable. Trump’s second term has been marked by sweeping and sector-specific tariffs on Canadian goods, and the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) — the pact that keeps most North American trade duty-free — remains in doubt.

Trump said last week he is “not looking to renew” the agreement ahead of a July 1 deadline to confirm a 16-year extension. A failure to renew would have significant consequences for Canadian exporters across virtually every sector.

GST a Persistent Irritant

Smith also pointed to Canada’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) as an ongoing source of friction with Washington. She said U.S. officials view the five-per-cent federal sales tax as a de facto tariff on American goods entering Canada.

“Their perspective is every American good that comes across the border the federal government gets a five per cent cut on because of GST,” Smith said. “As long as we have a national sales tax he’s going to want to do something to create some kind of parity.”

The United States has no equivalent national sales tax, which Smith said makes the GST a particular irritant for the Trump administration.

Improved Tone Under Carney

Smith said the Canada-U.S. relationship has improved since Prime Minister Mark Carney took office, contrasting the current dynamic with what she described as the “frayed” relationship between former prime minister Justin Trudeau and Trump over the past decade.

The premier’s comments reflect a broader debate within Canada about how best to manage an unpredictable trading partner that absorbs roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports.