Alberta Premier Danielle Smith faces an open threat of a leadership challenge from separatists within her own party after it became clear she may call a fall referendum using a pro-Canada question rather than one asking Albertans whether they want to leave Confederation.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Jeffrey Rath, lawyer for the Alberta Prosperity Project<\/strong>, issued the warning Wednesday, saying Smith must choose between her separatist base and former MLA Thomas Lukaszuk, who spearheaded a competing petition.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “Our view is Danielle needs to make a decision: Is she going to support Mister Lukaszuk, or is she going to support her base?” Rath said. “If she abandons her base or betrays her base, there will likely be political consequences.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The Alberta Prosperity Project says it collected more than 300,000 signatures<\/strong> on a citizen’s petition asking: “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” A court recently rejected that petition, however, citing a failure to consult First Nations.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Political analysts now expect Smith to instead call a referendum based on the rival Forever Canadian petition<\/strong>, which asks: “Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?” \u2014 a question framed in the affirmative and championed by Lukaszuk, a former UCP deputy premier.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “It’s not the question that the separatists want because it’s an affirmative question,” said Duane Bratt<\/strong>, a political scientist at Mount Royal University. “But it’s better than having no referendum question.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Alberta’s path to a fall referendum grew more chaotic Wednesday when a bipartisan committee of MLAs convened to review Lukaszuk’s question collapsed after the UCP caucus prematurely issued a news release claiming the vote had already taken place and the motion had passed.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Smith is expected to clarify her plans during a paid, province-wide television address on Thursday.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Rath said separatists are already organizing a response modelled on the campaign that ousted Smith’s predecessor, Jason Kenney<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “We’re asking all of the people that signed our petition and all of our canvassers to organize themselves to sell memberships across the province,” Rath said. “If our question is not put on a ballot by the end of the month, we’re going to be organizing a special general meeting of the United Conservative Party for August.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Feo Snagovsky<\/strong>, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Alberta, said Smith has so far managed the conflicting demands of separatists and federalists within the UCP with considerable skill \u2014 but that balancing act is now reaching a breaking point.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “We know that close to a majority, if not a majority, of UCP supporters support Alberta becoming an independent country \u2014 and the other half does not,” Snagovsky said. “She’s facing this tension between trying to stay responsive to the general electorate and the popular will, and trying to make sure she retains her job.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Public opinion polling consistently shows that outright separation remains a minority position among Albertans as a whole, complicating Smith’s calculus as she tries to satisfy a restive party base without alienating the broader electorate.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Michael Solberg<\/strong>, a partner at New West Public Affairs and a self-described UCP member, acknowledged the threat is real but cautioned against underestimating the premier.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n “It’s a pressure cooker and heavy is the head that wears the crown,” Solberg said. “The far fringe of her party is increasingly becoming the majority of her party, at least per the threats coming from groups like the one Jeffrey Rath is leading \u2014 but the premier is no slouch. She’s a fighter, and people who underestimate her do so at their own peril.”<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Separatist group warns of leadership challenge if Smith backs ‘Forever Canadian’ ballot question Alberta Premier Danielle Smith faces an open threat of a leadership challenge from separatists within her own party after it became clear she may call a fall referendum using a pro-Canada question rather than one asking Albertans whether they want to leave […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nTwo competing referendum questions<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Committee meeting collapses in confusion<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Separatists threaten a membership drive and special general meeting<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
A party divided \u2014 and a premier under pressure<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n